ACI LIVE NIGERIA ACI 72.4 ▲ +1.4pts NIGERIA ENERGY ERS 38 ▼ EXIT-DIFFICULT SOUTH AFRICA ACI 68.1 ▼ -0.6pts GHANA ACI 74.3 ▲ +2.1pts ETHIOPIA ACI 51.2 ▼ -1.2pts KENYA ACI 66.8 ▲ +0.9pts ACI LIVE NIGERIA ACI 72.4 ▲ +1.4pts NIGERIA ENERGY ERS 38 ▼ EXIT-DIFFICULT SOUTH AFRICA ACI 68.1 ▼ -0.6pts GHANA ACI 74.3 ▲ +2.1pts ETHIOPIA ACI 51.2 ▼ -1.2pts KENYA ACI 66.8 ▲ +0.9pts
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AlgoEconomics
The Framework

Exit Intelligence
Infrastructure

A dual-framework scoring system that tells institutional investors not just whether to enter African markets — but how, when, and whether capital can exit.

Live Pilot · Nigeria Energy Sector
ERS — Exit Risk Score
38
Exit-Difficult
Score 0–100 · 100 = Easiest Exit
Updated: March 2026 · Pilot Data
Exit Routes
32
Repatriation
41
Liquidity
28
IRR Bench
55
Timeline
38

The Problem

Governance is the single biggest driver of investment outcomes — yet it's the only major domain without real-time data.

Live
Markets
Live
Weather
Live
Supply Chains
Live
Commodity Prices
Missing
Governance

ACI
AlgoEconomics Core Intelligence
Governance & entry risk scoring across 4 dimensions. Answers: is this market investable?
Powers
ERS
Exit Risk Score
Exit feasibility scoring across 5 dimensions. Answers: can capital get out?

Framework 01

AlgoEconomics
Core Intelligence

The ACI compresses thousands of fragmented signals — policy shifts, regulatory changes, court rulings, institutional behaviour — into a single continuously updated governance score. No annual PDFs. No insider networks. Just evidence, updated as the world moves.

Four sub-components, each scored independently, combine to produce a composite ACI score from 0–100. Higher scores indicate stronger governance conditions for investment entry.

0
100 · Entry Investability
Nigeria · ACI Score · March 2026
72.4
▲ +1.4pts   Improving
Governance conditions are improving. Policy direction is positive. Execution risk remains the primary constraint. ACI-Stability score elevated following NNPC reform signals.
POC Active · Pilot Data
ACI-E
Exposure
Political risk exposure, conflict proximity, and institutional fragility signals. Measures the structural vulnerability of the operating environment.
Policy Risk · Geopolitical
ACI-X
Execution
Regulatory implementation quality, contract enforcement reliability, and bureaucratic friction across sector-specific contexts.
Regulatory · Enforcement
ACI-I
Integrity
Anti-corruption signals, transparency of public institutions, and quality of governance accountability frameworks at national and sector level.
Transparency · Anti-Corruption
ACI-S
Stability
Policy direction consistency, macroeconomic framework durability, and momentum signals that indicate whether conditions are improving or deteriorating.
Macro · Policy Direction

Framework 02

Exit Risk
Score

The ERS answers the question that existing indices never ask: can capital exit? It quantifies how, when, and whether an investor can realise returns from a specific market and sector combination.

Five weighted components produce a score from 0–100. A score of 100 represents the easiest possible exit environment. Scores below 40 are classified EXIT-DIFFICULT — signalling structural barriers to capital repatriation.

0
100 · Exit Feasibility
ERS Scoring Scale
80–100
Exit-Ready
60–79
Conditional Exit
40–59
Exit-Constrained
0–39
Exit-Difficult
Sub-40 scores signal structural barriers to capital exit: currency restrictions, shallow M&A markets, limited IPO pathways, repatriation controls, or prolonged exit timelines.
35%
Exit Route Analysis
Availability and viability of M&A, IPO, secondary sale, and strategic buyer pathways in market.
Highest Weight
25%
Capital Repatriation
Currency convertibility, FX control regimes, withholding tax structure, and cross-border fund transfer friction.
Regulatory Layer
25%
Market Liquidity Depth
Depth of capital markets, institutional investor presence, and secondary market activity within the sector.
Market Structure
15%
IRR Benchmarking
Realistic return expectations benchmarked against comparable exits in the region and sector over 5-year windows.
Return Calibration
5%
Exit Timeline Probability
Probabilistic modelling of exit duration based on market conditions, deal complexity, and regulatory clearance times.
Temporal Risk
Live Pilot · ERS in Action
Nigeria Energy Sector —
Exit-Difficult

Nigeria's energy sector presents a compelling entry thesis: strong IRR benchmarks, active sector reform, and growing DFI interest. But the ERS tells a different story on exit. Currency controls, shallow domestic M&A markets, and prolonged regulatory clearance timelines combine to produce an ERS of 38 — signalling that while entry conditions are improving, capital faces structural barriers to exit.

This is the intelligence gap AlgoEconomics fills. ACI alone would show a governance environment that is improving. ERS shows that exit risk remains structurally elevated — and why.

ERS · Nigeria Energy · March 2026
38
▼ Exit-Difficult
Exit Route Analysis (35%) 32
Capital Repatriation (25%) 41
Market Liquidity (25%) 28
IRR Benchmarking (15%) 55
Exit Timeline (5%) 38